Yordan Alvarez Walk-Off, The Most Valuable Play In Playoff History?
Alvarez
It doesn’t exactly take fancy numbers to know that Yordan Alvarez was an asset in Houston’s stunning win in Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Mariners because it doesn’t take much science to conclude that “going 5 -3 with a walk-off home run to help your team overcome a 7-3 deficit” is a very good thing.
“I think it’s one of the most special moments I’ve had in my career, having [my parents] there, and even for the city of Houston,” Alvarez said. And we agree.
- Section: Postseason 2022
But what if we said we have those fancy numbers, and they indicate that this was the most valuable game — and moment — a position player has played in a postseason game in history? And that, furthermore, those numbers don’t even capture the totality of what Álvarez did?
It wasn’t just a memorable game, nor was it dominant. It was historic.
The play with the most impact in history?
When Álvarez entered the batter’s box in the ninth inning, Seattle’s probability of victory was 91%. That’s based on the history of visiting teams that have led by two runs with two outs and two runners on board, as was the case with the Mariners. It’s not like those teams never let a lead go; It happens, sometimes, although it is not common. But that is 91% and not 100%.
Alvarez
If Seattle’s chance of winning was 91% when the ball left Robbie Ray’s hand, it dropped to 0% when Alvarez’s shot landed some 438 feet, because the game was over. Houston was 100% — because the game was over — after being 9% moments earlier. Just look at the graph. In the end, it looks like a cliff.
Given the way win probability works, Alvarez gets credit for 91%. If you go through the list of the most important plays in the postseason as far as winning that specific game is concerned, ladies and gentlemen, we have a new No. 1.
+91% – Alvarez home run, ALDS Game 1, 2022
+87% – Kirk Gibson home run, WSW Game 1, 1988
+83% – Jimmy Rollins double, 2009 NLCS Game 4
+83% – Single by Brett Phillips, SM Game 4, 2020
+83% – Double for Cookie Lavagetto, SM Game 7, 1947
One player on this list and one player on this list had their team down by one run with two outs, not by two runs; each of the teams that had very low odds came back with multiple plays, not one. As MLB.com’s Sarah Langs pointed out, there have only been four walk-off home runs in postseason history, and only two of those four came with two outs, and only Alvarez’s drive came when his team was down on the board by multiple runs. For that reason the Cuban cooks apart in history.
(Keep in mind that a Division Series Game 1 doesn’t compare to, say, laying down the opposing team in a World Series Game 7. There’s a different metric for that, one we’ve already explored in the past. This play is only about winning a specific game).
That’s what happens when you hit a pitch at an exit velocity of 116.7 mph, as Alvarez did, the fourth-fastest hit for a big-time home run (including the regular season) since 2015. Houston’s right field by almost 100 feet (30.4 meters).
Alvarez
At the moment of making contact, the Cuban slugger had his bat in the so-called “sweet spot” (the placement point in which the batter can exert more force with the bat) moving at an elite level of 94.1 mph; As you can see in the graph below, he made contact past the midpoint of the bat’s travel and hit the ball at the most accurate spot. None of that affects the absolute value of the walk-off; Houston still would have won the game if it had been a hit into the short section of the stadium known as the Crawford Boxes. But it wasn’t like that, what a home run class! Álvarez showed no mercy to that pitching.
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